Monday 23 August 2010

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Friday 20 August 2010

Wigan V Chelsea - Saturday Premier League action

Saturday evening’s live Premier League action comes from the DW Stadium where Wigan have it all to do against the reigning champions after their disastrous opening day defeat to newly-promoted Blackpool.



Wigan were in utter disarray as Blackpool ran out 0-4 winners in one of the most surprising results in the Premier League for a long time, and a home game against Chelsea is just about the last thing Roberto Martinez and his side need after starting the season in such fashion.



The Latics did of course upset the Blues here last season as they ran out 3-1 winners, though as the 12/1 available about the home win suggests, a repeat would be an even bigger shock this time round with Wigan looking decidedly weaker than a year ago and trading as short as 5/4 to be relegated this season.



Scoring goals certainly looks like a big problem for Wigan this season and though Hugo Rodallega enjoyed a good start to his career in England, the goals dried up in the second half of last season and he is as big as 14/1 to score the first goal in this one.



Mauro Boselli has been brought into the club to try to fix that problem, and while he has a fine record in Argentinean football, it remains to be seen how he will settle into life in England, especially with a side who look set to struggle. Boselli is also 14/1 to score first, or 4/1 to score at any time which looks the way to go if you are keen to back him.



Unfortunately for Latics fans, this one does look to be all about the Blues and it’s tough to pick out any bets here that aren’t in favour of Chelsea, starting with their match odds of 2/9, which although short, will surely be a winning bet.



The feeling amongst many punters and pundits will be that if Blackpool scored 4 here, Chelsea could score 10, and if you do fancy them to run riot, you can back 3 of their main threats - Didier Drogba, Frank Lampard and Florent Malouda - all to score at 6/1 in Blue Square’s special treble.



If this one does go the way everyone expects, Chelsea -1 on Blue Square’s Handicap market is bound to be a popular punt a 4/6, while Chelsea -2 should also be a popular bet at 17/10 considering the champions’ recent scoring exploits. Don’t forget that the Blues celebrated last season’s title with a remarkable 8-0 home win on the final day. Against Wigan.



Looking at the Team Specials market, there are a host of tempting bets for Chelsea backers to get stuck into, with Chelsea to win to nil probably the most appealing at a very decent 4/5. Chelsea to score in both halves also looks decent at 4/5, while Chelsea to keep a clean sheet looks like another winning bet at 8/13.

Tuesday 17 August 2010

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Friday 13 August 2010

Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City

The new Premier League season kicks off at White Hart Lane on Saturday afternoon as Champions League debutants Spurs take on a Man City side whose minimum requirement this term must be a top four finish.



At the time of writing, Harry Redknapp has so far defied his ‘wheeler-dealer’ reputation with no significant signings coming into the club over the close season, and it remains to be seen whether he strengthens his squad in time for this one.



A fairly indifferent set of pre-season results could tempt ‘Arry into splashing out, with Craig Bellamy and Scott Parker two of the players strongly linked with the north London club. A 1-4 hammering by Villareal at the Lane a couple of weeks go will certainly have had Tottenham fans perusing the gossip columns with a certain desperation.



Nevertheless, there should be a fine atmosphere at one of the few remaining top-flight grounds capable of providing such a thing, and with a settled side playing at home after a superb campaign last time out, it’s easy to make a case for backing Spurs at 11/8 here.



By contrast, City have again spent wildly this summer with David Silva, Yaya Toure, Aleksandar Kolarov and Jerome Boateng costing £79m between them, and while they should certainly be up there come May, they’re bound to take time to get it right and don’t appeal at 15/8 to win this one. For those who really want to get with Mancini’s boys here, the 11/10 available for them on the Draw No Bet market looks like the way to go.



Much like Spurs, it’s not been a great summer for City results-wise, and heavy defeats at Sporting, Inter Milan and Dortmund suggest that Mancini and his staff still have plenty of work to do on a defence that conceded more than any other top 7 side last term.



They do of course have a frightening amount of firepower at the other end, with last season’s leading scorer Carlos Tevez a 6/1 chance for the first goal and 13/8 to hit the net at any time, while Emmanuel Adebayor is exactly the same price on both markets.



James Milner’s move may not have officially gone through yet, but the Blue Square traders have wasted no time in pricing him up for this one – he’s 10/1 for the first goal on his debut and a 3/1 shot to score at any time.



For Spurs, it’s the prolific Jermain Defoe who heads the first goalscorer market at 5/1, while the 11/8 about him to score at any time looks very good after his 24 goals last term. Roman Pavlyuchenko is another player who could be worth backing after a fine second half to last season saw him revive his Spurs career – the Russian is 13/8 to find the net in this one.



This game should certainly provide goals given the amount of attacking talent on the pitch, allied with the fact that neither defence is exactly water-tight. Over 2.5 goals looks like a superb punt at 10/11, while Goal Crazy – both teams to score – also looks like a very good thing at 3/4.



For a Correct Score bet, the 25/1 about Tottenham to win 3-1 looks very attractive, while 2-1 also appeals at 9/1, For those who are looking for the big win to start the season in style, Tevez to score first and Spurs to win 3-1 pays an almighty 250/1 and might just be worth a quid or two.

Chelsea v West Bromwich Albion

Double winners Chelsea kick off their Premier League title defence against newly-promoted West Brom on Saturday evening in what many people will have down as their banker of the weekend. It’s no surprise to see the Blues as short as 1/6 to win this one, with West Brom 14/1 outsiders and the draw 11/2.



While we’ve grown used to seeing Chelsea throwing eye-watering amounts of cash around during the close season, its been very different this year with Ricardo Carvalho’s move to Madrid making him the 5th big name to leave the club after Joe Cole, Michael Ballack, Juliano Belletti and Deco.



With only Yossi Benayoun’s arrival and the pending transfer of Ramires to balance those losses, the Blues are putting plenty of faith in the players who did so well last year on their way to breaking the Premier League goals record with a staggering 103 for the season.



Last season’s Golden Boot winner Didier Drogba will once again spearhead his side’s attack, and understandably he is as short as 4/7 to hit the target against the Baggies, 11/4 to score first, and 9/4 for 2 or more goals. It would be hard to argue with any of those bets really.



Florent Malouda’s wonderful form in the second half of last season saw him pick up the Player of the Month award for March, and he can put France’s shambolic World Cup behind him straight away in this one – the 13/8 about him to be on target looks very backable.



Frank Lampard is another player who had a summer to forget, though last season produced his best ever goal scoring return as he hit 27 in all competitions. If you fancy him to carry on where he left off here, the Blue Square traders bravely offer the best price in the industry about him to score – a very tidy-looking 5/4.



Roberto Di Matteo led West Brom back to the top-flight at the first time of asking following their relegation in 2009, but as even-money second favourites for relegation behind only Blackpool in the betting, it’s obvious how difficult this campaign is likely to be.



Of course, these aren’t the sort of games that decide whether sides go down or not, and in a lot of ways, starting with a match where there is absolutely nothing to lose is ideal for the Baggies, and there’ll certainly be no pressure on them against Di Matteo’s old club.



They have always been admirably realistic, refusing to risk the club’s future by spending silly money in an all-out effort just to survive, and it’s been a frugal summer once again at the Hawthorns with Nicky Shorey and Boaz Myhill the main arrivals for a combined fee of just £3m.



Luke Moore, Ishmael Miller and Roman Bednar will be vying for spots up front and all 3 are available at 16/1 to score the first goal in this one. Former Arsenal man Jerome Thomas is another who will provide a real threat from wide positions and at 20/1, he could just be worth a pound or two for the first goal.



Ultimately, it’s difficult to see this being anything other than one-way traffic, and Chelsea -1 on the handicap market looks like a fantastic bet at 8/15, as does Chelsea to win both halves at 11/10. For a correct score bet, I’d go for Chelsea to win 4-0 at 10/1.

Wednesday 11 August 2010

The Barclays Premier League Title Race 2010/11

Manchester United and current holders Chelsea have shared the Premier League title three times each in the last six seasons. The pre-season prices suggest that the trophy will end up in familiar territory again with the West London club as 7/4 favourites and United close behind at 9/4. That’s nearly 70% of the outright book taken up by two teams, but it’s hard to argue with the sums of the Blue Square odds-compilers. Last season Carlo Ancelotti led his Chelsea side to their first title since Jose Mourinho departed Stamford Bridge. The Blues have finally settled after that turbulent period in no man’s land under Grant, Scolari and Hiddink – but they were never really that far away from recapturing the title winning formula. At times their away form let them down last season and they also had to cope with losing key players to the African Cup of Nations and some nasty injuries. They still scored an incredible 103 times in their 38 matches and held on to pip Sir Alex Ferguson’s men by one point. Fergie had his side playing some great football in the absence of Cristiano Ronaldo and could claim to have only missed out by virtue of the two defeats inflicted on them by the eventual champions – even a draw in one of those games would have been good enough. It all points to the importance of matches against title rivals and that is why it’s hard to see any other team making an impact on the title race. Neither club have spent a huge amount in the summer but both look well equipped to challenge once again. Even the England ‘stars’ that went to South Africa turn out for both clubs as if they are different players and that will be enough for Ferguson and his Italian counterpart to mount another fascinating head-to-head race which could climax on 7th May when they face each other at Old Trafford.



Arsenal have been tipped by plenty of shrewd (and not so shrewd judges) to do well, but it’s hard to see where those tipsters are coming from on this one. The general view was that the ability to keep Cesc Fabregas would be the difference between sneaking into the top four and becoming challengers, whereas the more realistic fans in the red half of North London knew that keeping their Spanish captain would just about keep them in contention for third or fourth. Fabregas’ committal to his existing contract led to Arsenal’s price being clipped from 6/1 to 11/2 by Blue Square. The real problems for the Gunners lie in defence and the lack of cover at centre back and the absence of a ‘title winning’ standard goalkeeper are a real worry for their backers. With some three weeks until the transfer window closes those acquisitions are the ones to look out for by anyone yet to back Arsene Wenger’s team. The Frenchman was the subject of a question posed by the Racing Post in their excellent pre-season Kick-Off pull-out “deluded or a genius?” – without seeming ungrateful the Arsenal faithful might like to answer that at the moment by saying he is a ‘deluded genius!’. Before writing off the Gunners completely it would be nice to know how much money Wenger has to spend, but you’re just as likely to find out how long a piece of string is. If there hasn’t been any money around for Wenger to invest then he has kept very loyal to a board that have been economical with the truth. If there was money then it’s Wenger that’s being unnecessarily economical for reason’s we can only guess at. One manager that doesn’t have that problem is Roberto Mancini at Manchester City. Money is apparently no object at Eastlands and Mancini’s real test will come in the man management of such a big squad. City missed out on a Champions League place last season as Mancini became reluctant to throw caution to the wind. One game away to a depleted Arsenal at the Emirates in late April comes to mind, City were happy to hold on for a point against a home team that had been beaten by attacking teams Wigan and Tottenham in their last two games and were there for the taking. Mancini let the Gunners of the hook with a rigid 4-5-1 formation which hints that having all the money in the world doesn’t do anything for having a decent scout to work out the opposition. Mistakes like that could cost City again and even the most talented title winning sides have been underpinned by great organisation behind the scenes. City are 5/1 to claim their first top flight title since the 1967/68 season. Liverpool have more recent claims to English football’s biggest prize but it’s all change once again at Anfield. Rafa Benitez has been replaced with Roy Hodgson and for the first season in a while the air of expectation around the club has subsided. One would think that the Anfield faithful would settle for a return to the ‘top 4’ and a Champions League berth as Hodgson is tasked with turning around this huge club. The Reds are one of the biggest prices they have been for the title in a couple of decades, a huge 14/1. Tottenham Hotspur are the last of six clubs given quotes of under 33/1 to take the trophy. That kind of market suggests an ultra competitive heat, but surely it would still require some improvement for the rest to figure against the big two. Tottenham fans will have the pleasure of seeing their side compete on the biggest stage in Europe but will still wonder what kind of inroads can be made after a season in which they finished fourth but still failed to beat Stoke, Wolves and Hull at White Hart Lane. Even a clean sweep of nine points from that relatively easy trio of games would have left them eight points adrift of Chelsea.